Hello, everybody! I am back for my weekly NFL Weekly Betting Picks against the spread! I definitely missed doing this during the football season. I love handing out free money to the good people of America. Just kidding, I didn’t have a great first year doing this but I plan on improving.
This NFL season has already contained frequent exciting and surprising moments. One main surprise is Fitzmagic, also known as the clinic that Tampa Bay Bucs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is putting on. The Buccaneers were often picked to be one of the worst teams in the NFL prior to the start of the season. However, they have surprised everyone by starting their season 2-1 led by Fitzpatrick. Surprisingly, there are already two ties in the very young 2018 season. In week 1, the Browns and Steelers played out a sloppy tie, and in week 2 the Vikings and Packers played to a dramatic tie at Lambeau Field in which both teams blew opportunities to win the games via field goals. Talking about field goals, the Browns kicker in back to back weeks missed game winning PATs/field goals. The Steelers finally won a game, which momentarily put all of their drama to bed. Also, who saw the Bills beating the Vikings last week? Nobody, including myself. But with that all of that in the past, let’s get into my Week 4 picks.
- San Francisco 49ers at LA Chargers (-10): Look, usually I do not take spreads that are this high. However, I think it is appropriate to do so here. This game is all about each team’s mentality. The 49ers are devastated after losing their star quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL last week in Kansas City. Now, they turn to their back quarterback CJ Beathard, who completed less than 60 percent of his passes last year. The 49ers moral is down and they know that their chances of winning football games has gone way down. Meanwhile the Chargers, after losing the Battle of LA vs. the Rams last week, know that this is a must win game since they are facing a backup quarterback. Their schedule is not easy, and they understand that this win is crucial to get back to .500. The Chargers will win this game in a blowout. 49ers 13, Chargers 28
- Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: I really like this pick. The Ravens have gotten off to a really good start, with their only loss coming in Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football. They beat a decent Denver Broncos team by double digits last week. Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday Night football game in which they were in control for most of the game, which was followed by a late comeback by Tampa Bay. The win, Pittsburgh’s first of the year, put aside all of their off the field drama at least for the moment. However, I think this spread is too high in favor of Pittsburgh. Although their defense intercepted Fitzpatrick three times, still gave up big plays in the passing game which allowed 27 points. Also, Pittsburgh is on a short week, meaning they have one fewer day to prepare for this rivalry game. I’ll take Baltimore and the points. Ravens 31, Steelers 30
- Miami Dolphins (+7) at New England Patriots: I like this pick because one team is playing really well and one team is playing bad for their standards. New England, which currently sits at 1-2, has struggled on offense this year. They lack any playmakers on offense, which has hurt them on third down and with their offense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked good. In particular, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has looked great. The Dolphins are fast on offense this year, and it seems they are always close to breaking out a big play on offense. The Dolphins also have a decent pass rush led by defensive end Cameron Wake. I think New England wins this game, but I’ll take the points and the Dolphins. Dolphins 20, Patriots 24
- Detroit Lions (+3) at Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting game, as these are two average teams squaring off against each other in Dallas. The Lions looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL after the first two weeks after losing to the Jets and 49ers. However, they looked great on Sunday night football vs. the Patriots, winning that game convincingly. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 1-2 as well, but have not looked good at all this year. The Dallas offense is one of the worst offenses in the NFL, as they have only scored 4 offensive touchdowns all year. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott continues to struggle without any playmakers. Also, the offensive line isn’t as good as it has been in recent years, which has shifted them away from the power running game that made their offense go the last couple seasons. I think there is a lot of pressure on Dallas to win this game, but I see Matt Stafford and company winning in Arlington. Lions 27, Cowboys 24
- Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals: I am picking this partly due to the history of this matchup. Seattle hasn’t lost in Arizona since 2012. The Cardinals defense looked great last week, but the Bears under Mitch Trubisky have not looked good on offense all year. Seattle quarterback, Russell Wilson, can have success here if the Seahawks can have a balanced rushing attack with Chris Carson like they did last Sunday against a good Dallas defense. Rookie Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first career start in the NFL. I think that was the right move by the Cardinals, however, this will not be an easy game for Rosen. I think the Seahawks cover. Seahawks 20, Cardinals 13
Photo contributed by the Redlands Bulldog photographer Joe Kim